2008 IT Spending Predictions
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Here are the 2008 IT spending predictions I've been able to gather as we head into the new year. All these numbers apply to the United States, unless otherwise indicated. Gartner: 5.7 percent |
I've calculated the Gartner percentage from dollar figures for 2007 and 2008 that the research house released in October. The numbers from the other firms come from reports that they released this month.
To put these into perspective:
Forrester and IDC have grown more pessimistic in recent months. These numbers are lower than earlier predictions they made. (I don't know if Gartner will be revising its numbers.)
Forrester expects U.S. GDP to increase by 2 to 3 percent, so IT spending will be double the growth rate for the U.S. economy.
These figures are only a few tenths of a percent lower than the predictions made a year ago for a 2.8 to 6.5 percent increase in 2007. (CIO Insight predicted an increase of 7.6 percent).
Goldman Sachs says "IT spending in 2008 could fall by 1 percent compared with 2007."
In short, I think Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Conigliaro has it right when she says the IT spending outlook is "less than comforting." This is a bearish range of figures, but it represents a moderate slowdown rather than a dead stop. See also Baseline's analysis here.
Ziff Davis Enterprise is currently surveying IT executives and managers on their spending plans; look for the report to come out in February. If you receive an invitation, please take our survey. Click here to see last year's results.
