The Death of Big Software?

Forgive my morbidity lately, but something must be in the water.

Last week I had a little rant about the potential demise of the CIO role. Here's a more likely scenario: that big, clunky software systems that just about any CIO would tell you takes years to implement, could cost millions, and problem causes more headaches than it solves (at least from the get-go) will disappear.

Take ERP, for example. These beasts have plenty of bells and whistles, but it turns out that less than two-thirds of them are actually being utilized, according to a recent Accenture study. And one in two respondents say they don't need them all.

So does that mean vendors will start trimming down the flashy add-ons and keep it simple from now on? Hard to imagine in such competitive markets.

Will something new come along and replace these software systems? We're already seeing dozens of new technologies run amok on the turf formally controlled by Big Software. And there's no huge reason to think there won't be more.

But it's nearly impossible to say how quickly the new will phase out the old. In the same Accenture study, respondents said that slightly more than half of current enterprise IT systems will be replaced by new technologies in the next eight to 10 years. Still, it's tough to predict.

Cloud computing, SaaS, virtualization, social media/Web 2.0 -- all of these things are game changers, but will they truly replace the enterprise software of old? We're getting viewpoints from some of the smartest researchers, thinkers and CIOs out there.

Help us out: what do you think will happen?